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Construction : Exclusive Report | February 2013 | Source : Construction Update

CSO estimates economy to grow at 5% in 2012-13

By Raja Iyer

In a clear indication of slowdown in the economy, the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) expects the real growth in India's gross domestic product (GDP) to slow to 5.0 percent from 6.2 per cent in 2011-12. The CSO said this while releasing the advanced estimate of GDP for 2012-13.

This growth estimate is lower than Reserve Bank of India's forecast of 5.5 percent and the Finance Minister P Chidambaram's projection of 5.7 percent.

The construction sector is expected to post a growth of 5.9 percent during 2012-13 compared to 5.6 percent in the previous year, CSO said in a press release. The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement production and steel consumption have registered growth rates of 6.1 per cent and 3.9 per cent, respectively during April-December, 2012-13.

The CSO expects mild improvement in the mining and quarrying sector, which may post of growth of 0.4 percent compared to a negative growth of 0.6 percent. The 'community, social and personal services" sector is expected to post a growth of 6.8 percent, marginally higher than 6.0 percent in 2011-12.

But the organization expects worsening of growth in 'agriculture, forestry and fishing', manufacturing, 'electricity, gas & water supply', and 'financing, insurance, real estate and business services' sectors.

While growth in 'agriculture, forestry and fishing' may decelerate to 1.8 percent in 2012-13 from 3.6 percent in the previous year, the same for manufacturing is pegged at 1.9 percent compared to 2.7 percent, CSO said.

Similarly, the 'financing, insurance, real estate and business services' sector may grow at 8.6 percent compared to 11.7 percent in 2011-12. 'Electricity, gas & water supply' sector may expand at 4.9 percent, lower than 6.5 percent in 2011-12.

According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of manufacturing and electricity registered growth rates of 1.0 per cent and 4.4 per cent, respectively during April-November, 2012-13, as compared to the growth rates of 4.2 per cent and 9.5 per cent in these sectors during April-November, 2011-12.

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